Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.983724 4.340847 4.736086 5.210119 5.768928 6.414185 7.226966
2025-02-02 3.604005 4.091893 4.672313 5.429199 6.415230 7.695983 9.561160
2025-02-09 3.340804 3.897856 4.593959 5.557986 6.913941 8.855973 12.088613
2025-02-16 3.078725 3.657954 4.406349 5.487751 7.097686 9.588284 14.241662
2025-02-23 2.881393 3.474042 4.260969 5.439424 7.283176 10.345620 16.769545
2025-03-02 2.716480 3.314577 4.126817 5.380469 7.428812 11.060114 19.607539
2025-03-09 2.577589 3.177181 4.007318 5.322917 7.558180 11.771818 22.932308
2025-03-16 2.471044 3.075301 3.927486 5.313296 7.761966 12.684638 27.612014
2025-03-23 2.404548 3.023936 3.915291 5.407118 8.164650 14.156517 35.976198
2025-03-30 2.295062 2.903385 3.788983 5.296169 8.157942 14.684926 41.683048
2025-04-06 2.195618 2.791722 3.668217 5.181821 8.125135 15.142966 48.135008
2025-04-13 2.086652 2.660752 3.509642 4.987780 7.901880 15.034673 51.413344
2025-04-20 2.049245 2.635093 3.515868 5.088093 8.320510 16.919036 75.848268
2025-04-27 2.036940 2.645893 3.580072 5.299752 9.030665 20.156480 151.908852
2025-05-04 2.007364 2.628349 3.596401 5.423512 9.570679 23.287596 384.604197
2025-05-11 1.944668 2.556472 3.517976 5.356083 9.628234 24.594709 885.308480
2025-05-18 1.890208 2.494992 3.453343 5.309670 9.732385 26.229000 9003.287419
2025-05-25 1.837684 2.434321 3.386665 5.253034 9.800306 27.794648 NaN
2025-06-01 1.788761 2.377389 3.323352 5.197729 9.863301 29.446820 NaN
2025-06-08 1.750380 2.335676 3.284028 5.188481 10.056195 32.113644 NaN
2025-06-15 1.729852 2.321571 3.291763 5.278636 10.562520 37.638885 NaN
2025-06-22 1.680486 2.259095 3.211091 5.172020 10.449497 38.573768 NaN
2025-06-29 1.633107 2.198449 3.131299 5.062076 10.310701 39.241367 NaN